Tropical Storm Jerry forms, but hurricane free season could make U.S. history
- Ric Kearbey
- Oct 7
- 2 min read
Tropical storm Jerry joins the lineup
Tropical Storm Jerry spun up this morning in the Atlantic, already flexing like he wants a promotion. Forecasts show Jerry could reach hurricane strength within a day or two, but he’s expected to hook north and stay out at sea. So, no U.S. worries this time.
Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to turn west-northwest and eventually north into the Atlantic.
Wait...despite Tropical Storm Jerry, could this be a hurricane-free season?
Here’s the wild part. If this calm streak holds, 2025 could go down as one of the few hurricane seasons in recorded history where not a single hurricane hits the U.S. or Caribbean. That’s only happened 34 times since 1851, and just 16 times since the 1950s.
Tropical Storm Jerry is likely to become a hurricane, but then move north to eventually weaken in the Atlantic, so could this be a hurricane-free season?
The last time we pulled that off was 2013, when every storm fizzled before reaching land. It’s like the ocean had stage fright.
The stats don’t lie
So far this year, we’ve had 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Yet not one of them touched the U.S. or the Caribbean. The only close call came from Tropical Storm Chantal brushing South Carolina. That’s it.
If you’re wondering how rare that is, imagine going an entire summer in Florida without one mosquito bite.
Forecasters expected fireworks
This was supposed to be an active year. Warm Atlantic waters, fading El Niño, and neutral conditions all pointed toward a busy season. But Mother Nature said “no thanks.”
Dry Saharan air, stubborn wind shear, and a moody upper-level trough kept storms from really forming. The total “energy score” of the season, known as ACE, sits about 9 percent below average. The ingredients were there, but the atmosphere kept slamming the fridge door.
Quiet... for now
Before we start celebrating, remember that hurricane season runs until November 30. October has a sneaky way of throwing surprises. Wilma in 2005, Sandy in 2012, and a few others all showed up fashionably late.
Still, right now the tropics look sleepy. If the calm continues, 2025 could become the first hurricane-free year for the U.S. and Caribbean in a decade.
A rare quiet chapter
It’s a weird feeling. After years of hyperactive seasons, this one might just tiptoe quietly into history.
If it ends that way, we’ll remember 2025 as the year the Atlantic finally took a deep breath.