A SpaceX rocket is about to crash into the Moon. Could you actually see it?
- Ric Kearbey
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Could you actually watch a SpaceX rocket crash into the Moon from Earth?
Maybe. Next Wednesday, a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to crash into the Moon at more than 5,400 mph. Scientists think the impact could kick up a cloud of lunar dust that may become visible through telescopes. If it does, it could become the first human-made impact plume ever observed on the Moon’s sunlit face.
But here’s the part that surprised me. This wasn’t planned.
So why is a SpaceX rocket crashing into the Moon in the first place?
Why is a SpaceX rocket crashing into the Moon?
Because it finished its job more than a year ago.
On January 15, 2025, a Falcon 9 rocket launched two private lunar landers from Florida.
Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost landed successfully.
Ispace’s Resilience did not.
Once the Falcon 9 upper stage released both spacecraft, it became an empty piece of hardware drifting through space.
Instead of escaping into orbit around the Sun, gravity slowly reshaped its path until a collision with the Moon became unavoidable.
That leads to another question.
How big is the rocket?
Much bigger than most people expect.
The Falcon 9 upper stage is about 40 feet long and weighs roughly 4 to 5 tons.
When it reaches the Moon around 2:35 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, August 5, it will be traveling about 5,400 mph, more than seven times the speed of sound.
The impact will release about the same amount of energy as three tons of TNT.
But the speed isn’t what has astronomers excited.
Could you actually see the impact from Earth?
Maybe. And that’s what makes this event so unusual.
Most accidental impacts happen on the Moon’s far side or in darkness.
This one is expected to strike near Einstein Crater on the Moon’s sunlit western limb, the edge of the Moon that faces Earth.
Computer models suggest the impact could throw a broad curtain of lunar dust above the lunar horizon. If the plume rises high enough and stays bright enough, astronomers using telescopes may actually be able to watch it.
Whether that happens remains uncertain.
But if it does…
…it could become a first.
So what will the impact actually look like?
What will happen when it hits?
Probably not what you’re picturing.
Unlike a solid asteroid, the Falcon 9 upper stage is mostly hollow.
Scientists think it will crumple as it strikes the surface instead of punching deep into the Moon like a dense meteorite.
The collision should blast a wide curtain of lunar dust across the surface while sending a much narrower plume high above the Moon.
Some models suggest that plume could briefly become visible from Earth through telescopes.
So why are scientists hoping that happens?
Why are scientists excited about this crash?
Because this is a rare scientific experiment.
Researchers already know the rocket’s approximate mass.
They know its speed.
They know where it’s expected to hit.
That means NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and other lunar spacecraft can photograph the impact site before and after the collision, allowing scientists to compare computer models with what actually happened.
Those observations will improve our understanding of lunar impacts and help engineers better protect future astronauts, habitats, and equipment on the Moon.
There’s another reason this story matters.
Will this happen more often?
Almost certainly.
More governments and private companies are launching missions to the Moon every year.
That also means more rocket stages and spacecraft are traveling through cislunar space.
Most missions are carefully planned.
But leftover hardware doesn’t always end up exactly where engineers intended.
This won’t be the last accidental impact on the Moon.
It may simply become one of the first we have a chance to witness from Earth.
The Weather Nerd takeaway
Every crater on the Moon has a story.
Most were written by asteroids.
This one may be written by us.
For 4.5 billion years, the Moon has been hit by rocks from space.
Next week, it may be hit by a rocket from Earth.
And if astronomers are lucky, we might actually watch history unfold through a telescope.
🌕 Nerdy Nugget
The Moon has no atmosphere.
On Earth, our atmosphere creates friction that causes many incoming objects to burn up before reaching the ground.
The Moon has no air to slow anything down.
That means this Falcon 9 rocket stage will strike the lunar surface intact at more than 5,400 mph, instantly vaporizing itself and blasting lunar dust into space.
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